TNX

When looking at the 10 year Treasury Note yield, I observed a repeating pattern from last year. The difference is that this time SPX is moving in opposite direction compared to last year. I am not able to draw any conclusion, but I thought I would post it to see if someone can find it useful. Could it mean that SPX will do the opposite this year and melt up ?

SPX time cycle

One can subdivide the current rally in the SPX from March in three stages (rally, consolidation and correction) that seems to be repeating in a fractal self similar fashion. Notice the second rally duration is exactly 50% of the first one. If the consolidation stage follows the same relationship, would mean that the next two weeks in the SPX are down. I believe SPX is going to 950.

UNG Target

UNG downside target as measured by triangle's wider section comes in at 9.15. Could that be the final bottom for UNG ? I believe UNG is tracing a 5th wave ending diagonal in EW terms. Once this wave is completed UNG should get a nice bounce, it's going to take a while though.

CPCI:CPCE update

CPCI to CPCE ratio might be tracing a divergence that would add weight to the idea that the top or an important intermediate top is near, if not here already.

Short VLO ?

VLO is facing significant resistance: a rising trend line that has been observed few times and a declining 200 MA. Current up move resembles a bear flag.

Zooming in to a 60 min. time frame. The ABC corrective move seems like is about to end. A good target to initiate short position is around 19.37 to 19.40 where there is Fibonacci confluence and a potential double top.

CPCI:CPCE ratio

CPCI to CPCE ratio was a good tool to spot intermediate term tops during the 2008-2009 decline. It looks like this same tool can be use to help anticipate intermediate term bottoms in this current rally.
The chart right now is telling us to be cautious in the long side since we are hitting the upper channel that is containing this ratio since March 2009.

FSLR short term trade

FSLR has been in a downturn lately tracing an ABC move. FSLR broke a significant uptrend line and could be very well heading to retest the November lows. I believe the descending trend line will provide support for at least a temporal bounce around the 117-119 area in the next few days.

GOLD ready for a breakout

After a long consolidation, Gold looks ready for a breakout of the symmetrical triangle. I expect the breakout will be to the upside with an approximate target of 1075 for GLD. Notice how volume has been declining during this consolidation phase.

Nasdaq very close to resistance

The Nasdaq is getting very close to a point of huge resistance, red dot. That is where the bear trend line from October 2007 top meets 50% Fib retracement from 2007 highs to March 2009 lows. It also happens to align perfectly with the 23.6% retracement from 2000 highs to March 2009 lows.
A potential huge inverse head and shoulders could be developing with the left shoulder completed and the head almost in place. The potential neckline would be the bear trend line.

And here is a daily chart of the Nasdaq. Note how the Fib lines align very well with areas of support and resistance within the current rally from the March lows. My target for this top is 2055.